Covid-19: here are the 3 scenarios envisaged by the WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) published a study on Wednesday March 30 containing three different scenarios on the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. If one of them presents a more contagious and more virulent variant, this is not the most plausible scenario according to the Organization, at this stage.

A less virulent virus

Of the three paths that the global health crisis can take, the most likely is also the most reassuring. The WHO presented a gradual decline in the severity of the virus, in particular thanks to greater collective immunity.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the WHO returned to this possibility: “Based on what we now know, the most likely scenario is that the virus will continue to evolve, but that the severity of the disease that it causes will go on decreasing as the immunity increases thanks to the vaccination and to the infections.

Several variants but less dangerous

This new publication also highlights the fact that new peaks of infection could appear when immunity drops, requiring booster vaccinations for the most vulnerable people. However, these new infection peaks could be less virulent.

“In the best-case scenario, we would see less severe variants emerge and there will be no need for new booster dose formulations and vaccines,” explained the Director General of WHO.

a New, more virulent variant

Moreover, even if the most likely scenario considered is reassuring, the organization has not ruled out a more alarming version. “In the worst-case scenario, a more virulent and highly transmissible virus emerges. Faced with this new threat, the protection of populations – thanks to a previous vaccination or infection – against severe forms of the disease or death will be reduced rapidly. A scenario that would involve modifying existing vaccines.

Maria Van Kerkhove, delegate for the fight against the WHO Covid, recalled that even today, “the virus has a lot of energy.”

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