Covid: the three scenarios envisaged by the WHO on the continuation of the epidemic

By Graziella L. Posted April 2, 2022, 10:23 AM

As the Covid-19 epidemic is on the rise again after a month of calm, it is difficult to imagine what will happen in the coming months. The WHO has discussed three different scenarios regarding the aftermath of the pandemic.

the Covid-19 will it become an endemic disease? Of new variants more virulent will they appear? Or will he completely vanish overnight? Nobody can say today that a scenario or the other is the right one, we will have to wait several months to see the trend taking shape, while the epidemic fluctuates constantly between rising and falling contaminations in the world.

However, theWorld Health Organization published a study this week containing three different scenarios on the aftermath of the pandemic of Covid-19, from the most optimistic to the most catastrophic. The WHO considers that the most plausible scenario among the three is that of a out of crisis, with a less and less virulent virus. Thanks to the’herd immunity greater over the months, a decrease in the severity of the virus could occur. The director general of the organization also added that “the severity of the disease it causes will decrease as immunity increases through vaccination and infections“.

Another scenario is that of the appearance of several new variants, but less dangerous. As we have observed since mid-March, new infection spikes may appear. But the variants being apparently less virulent, the number of hospitalizations does not follow the contaminations, which would therefore avoid overloading the hospitals. In this case, vaccination reminders may be needed for the most vulnerable, when their immunity drops.

Finally, the WHO is also considering the worst case scenario of the three, which would involve a new more severe variant. This would require a modification of existing vaccines, because the protection of populations would no longer be ensured against a more alarming and transmissible variant than Omicron or BA.2. If this is not the preferred scenario, caution should be exercised.

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